Lead times just got three days longer: check your reorder points

The number

In the Institute for Supply Management's October 2026 Manufacturing PMI report, published on November 2, the average lead time for production materials was 87 days, three days more than in September. Over the same month, the Supplier Deliveries index rose to 59.1 from 59.0: deliveries were slower for the 11th consecutive month, and five of the six largest manufacturing industries reported slower supplier deliveries.

Two other readings changed direction. The Inventories index returned to expansion at 51.4, up from 48.6 in September: manufacturers are adding raw materials again. The Customers' Inventories index stayed at 41.6, which ISM reads as customers' inventories "too low," the same as in September.

ISM's list of commodities in short supply in October includes electronic components (listed for 20 consecutive months), electrical components (16), memory (10), and copper, steel and printed circuit boards (4 each).

Three more days on an 87-day average is small. On a reorder point set a year ago, it is the gap between ordering in time and ordering late.

What it means for your parameters

An ISM average is a survey of purchasing managers, not a quote from your suppliers. It does not tell you that your lead times grew by three days. It tells you that, across the sector, buyers are committing further ahead than last month, and that the number in your ERP may be older than the number your suppliers now give you.

That matters because of how a reorder point works. It is the demand you expect during the lead time, plus safety stock. If the lead time in the formula is shorter than the real one, the system triggers the order too late, every time, and the safety stock is spent covering the gap instead of covering surprises.

Three things tend to happen together when lead times stretch for several months:

• The planned lead time stays where it was. Item masters are rarely reviewed on a schedule. A supplier that quoted 60 days last year and 75 days today is still at 60 in the system.
• Everyone reorders at once. The Inventories index moving back above 50 says manufacturers are restocking. Customers' inventories still "too low" says the demand is there. More orders land on the same suppliers, which tends to push quoted dates out further.
• The past-due list grows for a reason nobody records. Orders placed on time by the system arrive late against need, and the buyer chases a supplier who is delivering exactly what was quoted.

The fix is not a blanket increase. It is finding the items where the planned lead time and the real one have drifted apart, and correcting those.

Illustrative example, not a customer result

A part is used at 10 units a day. Its planned lead time is 60 days and its safety stock is 150 units, so the reorder point is 10 x 60 + 150 = 750 units.

The supplier now quotes 75 days. With the same formula, the reorder point should be 10 x 75 + 150 = 900 units.

With the old setting, the order is placed when stock hits 750. During the 75 real days, the plant uses 750 units, so the order arrives when stock is back at about zero: the 150 units of safety stock have been consumed by the lead time, not by a demand spike. One bad week of usage and the part runs short. The ERP shows nothing wrong: the order was placed exactly on the reorder point.

Run it on your own data this week

This takes about 45 minutes with exports you already have.

1. Export received purchase order lines for the last six months

Item, supplier, order date, receipt date, quantity. Keep only complete receipts so that a partial delivery does not shorten the measured lead time.

2. Compute the real lead time per supplier and item

Days between order date and receipt date, per line. Take the median per supplier and item, not the average, so that one emergency order does not distort the result.

3. Compare with the planned lead time in the item master

Put the planned lead time next to the measured one. Flag every item where the measured lead time is longer by more than 10 percent, or by more than a week. That gap is lead-time drift.

4. Recompute the reorder point for the flagged items

Average daily usage over the last 12 weeks, times the measured lead time, plus the current safety stock. Compare it with the reorder point in the system. The difference, in units and in days of usage, is how late the system is ordering.

5. Look at what is already open

For each flagged item, check today's days of cover against the expected arrival of its open orders. Items whose cover runs out first are your current shortage risks; the parameter fix will only protect the next cycle. The morning routine for parts below reorder point covers that daily view.

6. Change the parameters, then write down when you will check them again

Update the planned lead time first, and let the reorder point follow from it. Review the safety stock only after the lead time is right. Pick a date for the next review: when deliveries have been slowing for 11 months, once a quarter is a minimum for the suppliers that showed drift.

What to watch next

We follow these figures every month on the supplier lead time tracker. ISM publishes its November Manufacturing PMI report at the start of December. For buyers, two readings matter: whether the average lead time for production materials keeps rising from 87 days, and whether Inventories stays above 50. Rising lead times with more companies restocking would put more pressure on the same suppliers, and on reorder points set before it started. Last week's issue on sorting past-due purchase orders covers the other half of the problem: what to chase first today.

Where WERISCO fits

WERISCO shows where your reorder points were set for lead times your suppliers no longer quote: it compares the planned lead time with the current one you provide, lists the suppliers that drifted and the items affected, and recomputes the reorder point on the current lead time. It works from your ERP and the exports you already run; your team decides what to change, and nothing is written back to your ERP.

Questions people ask

Does a longer average lead time in the ISM report mean my suppliers are slower?

Not necessarily. ISM reports how far ahead purchasing managers across the sector are committing. Your own receipts are the only way to know whether your suppliers changed, which is what steps 1 to 3 measure.

Should I raise safety stock when lead times get longer?

Correct the lead time first. Safety stock covers variability in demand and delivery; it should not be used to absorb a lead time that is simply out of date. Once the reorder point uses the right lead time, review whether the safety stock still matches the variability you see.

How often should planned lead times be reviewed?

At least quarterly for the suppliers on your past-due list, and whenever a supplier confirms a date that is consistently later than the planned lead time implies.